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Avaliação de Impacto do Estatuto do Desarmamento na Criminalidade: Uma Abordagem de Séries Temporais Aplicada à Cidade de São Paulo

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18836/2178-0587/ealr.v3n2p307-322

http://portalrevistas.ucb.br/index.php/EALR/index 

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Marcelo J. Santos1 & Ana L. Kassouf2

 

Resumo: O objetivo deste artigo é avaliar o efeito do Estatuto do Desarmamento sobre a criminalidade letal. Para isso utilizam-se dados de séries temporais da cidade de São Paulo na aplicação de uma metodologia de análise de intervenção. A hipótese de que a política de desarmamento causou redução na taxa de crimes letais não é rejeitada.

Palavras-chave: Estatuto do Desarmamento; Armas de Fogo; Crimes Letais; Análise de Intervenção.

 

Abstract: This paper assesses the effect of the Disarmament Statute on lethal crime rates by using time-series data for São Paulo city and applying an intervention analysis methodology. The hypothesis that the disarmament policy led to a decline in the lethal crime rate is not rejected.

Key words: Disarmament Statute; Firearms; Lethal Crime; Intervention Analysis.

 

1 Departamento de Economia, UEPG. E-mail: marcelojustus@uepg.br.
2 Departamento de Economia, Sociologia e Administração – USP. E-mail: anakassouf@.usp.br.

 

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